Mortgage Rates & the 2026 Renewal Wave: What Halifax Homeowners Need to Know Now

The Bank of Canada has held steady. Rates have stabilized. But over a million Canadian mortgages are renewing this year—and for many Halifax homeowners, the real reckoning is just beginning.

Halifax Mortgage Rates Feb 2026 — BoC holds at 2.25%; best 5-year fixed at 3.84%, variable at 3.35%. Over 1.15M renewals nationally; Halifax homeowners face up to 20% payment increases. Sandra Pike, Halifax REALTOR®.

Here's the deal. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on January 28, 2026—its second consecutive pause. For Halifax homeowners, that's both reassuring and, frankly, a wake-up call. Rates aren't dropping back to pandemic lows. They aren't spiking either. But for the 1.15 million Canadians whose mortgages are renewing this year, the landscape has shifted dramatically since they first signed.

Sandra Pike and her team at Royal LePage Atlantic have watched this unfold in real time across Halifax Regional Municipality. Here's what the data actually means—and what you should be doing about it right now.

01 — Where Mortgage Rates Actually Stand Today

What are the best mortgage rates in Canada right now? As of February 2, 2026, the best available 5-year fixed rate nationally sits at 3.84%, while the best 5-year variable rate is 3.35%—the lowest variable rates have been since mid-2022, following nine consecutive Bank of Canada rate cuts between June 2024 and October 2025.

The prime rate across Canada's major banks remains at 4.45%. Bond yields—the primary driver of fixed mortgage rates—are holding in the 2.8% range, which is why fixed rates have plateaued rather than continuing their downward drift.

Translation? Rates are stable. Not exciting. Not alarming. But meaningfully higher than where they were when millions of current mortgages were signed. That gap is where the real story lives.

Sources: Ratehub.ca, WOWA.ca — rates as of February 2, 2026. Stress test rate is the higher of 5.25% or your contract rate + 2%.

02 — Why 2026 Is the Year Mortgage Renewals Become a Real Event

How many mortgages are renewing in 2026? According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), 1.15 million mortgage holders will renew in 2026, with another 940,000 slated for 2027. The Bank of Canada has confirmed that roughly 60% of all outstanding mortgages in the country are set to renew across 2025 and 2026 combined.

Here's what makes this different from a typical renewal cycle: a massive portion of these mortgages were signed during 2020 and 2021, when rates bottomed out between 1% and 2.5%. Those borrowers are now renewing into a world where even the best available rates are roughly double what they originally locked in.

But let's be honest—the polarized picture is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. TD Economics notes that aggregate mortgage payments nationally are actually trending down, because higher-balance mortgages contribute more weight to national figures, and many of those are renewing at lower rates. The pain is real, but it's concentrated.

03 — What This Means for Halifax & HRM Homeowners Specifically

Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Halifax right now? Halifax is operating as a balanced-to-slight seller's market in early 2026. The top neighbourhoods drawing demand—Dartmouth, Sackville, and Bedford West—continue to attract buyers seeking affordability relative to Halifax proper, while single-detached homes across HRM show the strongest demand and sales activity.

The neighbourhoods seeing the most activity include Bedford West for newer master-planned communities, Lower Sackville for family-friendly affordability, and Dartmouth for its revitalized urban core and ferry access. Sandra Pike's team at Royal LePage Atlantic has observed steady interest across Clayton Park, Fairview, and the South End—each with distinct buyer profiles and price dynamics.

04 — What Happens to Rates for the Rest of 2026?

Will mortgage rates go down further in 2026? The short answer: probably not meaningfully. The Bank of Canada's next rate decision is March 18, 2026, and market expectations currently price in no further cuts through the remainder of the year. Scotiabank and National Bank both project the possibility of a rate increase to 2.75% by Q4 2026, though TD Economics sees the policy rate holding at 2.25% through at least 2031.

The consensus view is clear: we are at or very near the bottom of this interest rate cycle. Fixed rates are unlikely to fall further in any meaningful way—bond yields have already priced the current outlook in. Variable rates will track the policy rate, which means they're likely to stay roughly where they are.

Sources: TD Economics, National Bank, Scotiabank, Perch — as of late January 2026.

The wildcard? U.S. trade policy. The CUSMA joint review deadline is June 2026, and tariff-related uncertainty continues to weigh on both inflation expectations and economic growth projections. A sharp escalation could push the Bank of Canada in either direction—which is precisely why rate forecasters are hedging their language more than usual.

05 — What Halifax Homeowners Should Do Right Now

Stability in the rate environment doesn't mean passivity on your part. If your mortgage is renewing in 2026—or even early 2027—here's what Sandra Pike recommends based on what we're seeing across HRM:

06 — The Bottom Line for Halifax

The 2026 mortgage renewal wave isn't a crisis. TD Economics put it well: "most mortgage borrowers will manage, but with less financial flexibility." That's the honest assessment. Payments will go up for many. The shock won't be systemic—but it will be personal, and it will reshape household budgets across Halifax Regional Municipality.

Halifax is in a stronger position than most Canadian cities entering this period. Home values are holding, inventory is healthy, and demand from Dartmouth to Bedford to the South Shore remains steady. But stability doesn't mean complacency. The homeowners who come through this renewal wave in the strongest position will be the ones who plan ahead—not the ones who wait.

According to Sandra Pike, Halifax REALTOR® and data-driven market specialist at Royal LePage Atlantic: the conversation shouldn't be about whether rates will drop. It should be about whether your current strategy accounts for where they actually are. If you haven't had that conversation yet, the time is now.